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ELECTIONS IN GAGAUZIA OVER, BUT SITUATION LACKS CLARITY
The southern Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauz Yeri held elections to the local legislature, the Popular Assembly, last month – the first round on March 16 and the second one on March 30.
That was an important-most political event not only for the Gagauzia autonomy but for the entire Republic of Moldova as well, because like the June 2007 nation-wide local elections in Moldova, the parliamentary elections in Gagauzia were to determine the political life development trends and the latest changes in the electorate moods.
Political parties in Moldova have long started preparation for the chief political event of the 4-year cycle – the 2009 parliamentary elections, so the parties need to feel any change in the moods of voters so as to react to all the voters’ wishes accordingly.
As it usually happens before elections, there was no shortage of forecasts. And as it usually happens after elections, there were quite many surprises.
The region’s National Assembly was aspired by 10 political parties and a multitude of independent candidates. The main struggle for Gagauzia parliament mandates was between the ruling Moldovan Communist Party (MCP), the supporters of the incumbent Gagauzia Bashkan [Governor] Mikhail Formuzal who heads The United Gagauzia Movement, and candidates oriented to Nikolai Dudoglo, the Mayor of Comrat, the region’s capital.
Before the elections, many observers gave preference to Bashkan Formuzal and pointed out that quite many independent candidates supported precisely the United Gagauzia Movement. There was quite much skepticism about the electoral chances of the Communists who had been steadily losing their positions from election to election, and lost point blank the December 2006 election of the Bashkan of Gagauzia. With an account of such a political environment, the alignment of political forces after the last month’s parliamentary elections appeared to be quite unexpected.
So, after the said 2 election rounds, access to the Popular Assembly was won by 21 independent candidates, 10 representatives of the Communist Party, and two candidates each from the Democratic Party (DP) and the Ravnopraviye [Equal Rights] Socio-Political Movement. Such outcome was quite favorable for the Communists, who did a good job at the second round. On March 16, they won only 3 mandates of the 18 elected in the first round. And two weeks later, the MCP received 7 mandates of the 17 won in the second round.
The Communist Party, together with its obvious supporters from among the independent candidates, has won minimum 15-17 mandates in the 35-member regional legislature. The United Gagauzia and the Ravnopraviye have ensured themselves 8 mandates. From the remaining 10 new deputies, at least five are known to be determined supporters of Comrat Mayor Nikolai Dudoglo.
So, the architecture of political forces in the new Gagauzia parliament will depend on which side the so-called ‘Dudoglo bloc’ will take, and on how the remaining 5-6 independent deputies will behave.
Though, by law, the first meeting of the new forum is to be held within maximum one month as from the last round of voting, i.e. on April 30, the new lawmakers were not in a particular hurry to take their places in the forum. It was only yesterday, on April 29, that Gagauzia Bashkan Mikhail Formuzal signed a decree on convoking the new Popular Assembly, and the deputies assembled for a work session at 10 o’clock this morning.
Yet nobody can tell how productive this plenary sitting is going to be. The thing is, Comrat currently resembles a ‘big political bazaar’, where main players are bargaining to attract supporters to form a parliamentary majority. The majority will elect a Popular Assembly Chairperson, two Deputy Chairs, Assembly standing commissions, and will form the Gagauzia Executive Committee [government] and other power organs for next 4 years. These personalities and structures will be essential players to determine the course of the all-Moldova 2009 parliamentary election campaign, and, certainly, everyone in both Gagauzia and in Chisinau realize all this. Accordingly, political parties are vitally interested in winning power in Comrat.
The Communist Party, which is not at all going to yield power anywhere, stood up with a special Statement on the situation in Gagauzia, and promised to meet all its electoral pledges and to firmly proceed with the strategic line shaped in the MCP Electoral Platform.
Already after the elections in the autonomous region, MCP deputies reminded to the local public that the party’s program, “A Strong Country – a Strong Gagauzia”, envisages the implementation of essential programs in the spheres of centralized gas supply, good-quality water supply, road construction and repair, computerization of educational institutions, a number of social programs aimed at raising the local populace’s living standards, etc.
In the course of the consultations that were under way throughout the last month and are continuing in the Assembly house at the moment, the deputies are trying to bargain out the most advantageous conditions for shaping a ruling coalition. The key topic of the dispute is indeed the speaker’s post. Comrat Mayor Nikolai Dudoglo has never concealed his ambitions to come to head the region’s legislature. Some local sources maintained that yet shortly after the Bashkan election in December 2006, when Dudoglo lost only very little to Mikhail Formuzal in the second round, the two reached a gentlemen’s accord on collaboration in promoting Dudoglo to the speaker’s post.
However, shortly before the parliamentary elections, the former electoral rivals once again quarreled over their views of the region’s future life. So, in case of the United Gagauzia’s victory, Mikhail Formuzal was projecting to place Fedor Gagauz, the Movement’s chief ideologist, at the head of the Popular Assembly.
But as no force has received an absolute majority, the negotiations on forming a coalition took so long. Now much will depend on the position of Nikolai Dudoglo and his supporters. The sharp controversies with Formuzal that emerged shortly before the elections will hardly promote a consensus between these two key figures in the autonomous region. But even if they do strike a bargain, they will all the same need to attract independent deputies as well.
The Communists are not going to reconcile to the role of the opposition, either, and are actively trying to attract to their camp either independent deputies or 2-3 people from the Dudoglo team. As a matter of fact, the Communists have more chances to form a coalition and preserve their former influence in the Popular Assembly. In this work, Gagauzia Communists can count on the central Moldovan authorities that dispose of considerable possibilities of influencing the situation in the Gagauz Yeri autonomy.
Apparently, an outcome will take place in the nearest days. But it is clear already now that the question will be resolved through distribution of portfolios. This will produce a new communist or anti-communist coalition. The experience of raion, city and local Councils, which were formed in many regions after the 2007 local elections, shows that such alliances in Moldova are based on mercenary interests and are not durable.
