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MIHAI GHIMPU WILL HARDLY BECOME MOLDOVA’S MAHATMA GANDHI – POLITICAL SCIENTIST
Infotag’s interview with Zurab Todua, political scientist and author of books and articles on FSU area problems.
Question: How would you assess the current political situation in Moldova?
Answer: I guess many in Moldova are still remaining in the state of a certain shock. Such an array of forces could hardly be expected by anybody. As we remember, when the coalition was deciding whom to nominate for Speaker, Mihai Ghimpu was considered as a candidate for deputy speaker. The Alliance could nominate another candidacy, but nominated and elected Ghimpu. I presume that, firstly, this was a step towards confrontation with the MCP that will only promote the continuation and deepening of a political crisis in the republic. Secondly, this shows that serious differences are remaining inside the Alliance. And, thirdly, this was a defeat of Filat’s and Lupu’s.
Q: The Communists stand ready to go into opposition trenches. What will this give to the Communist Party?
A: This will show the party is not clasping for power, and is not apprehending repressions or persecutions. Going into opposition will let the party re-group, get rid of place-hunters and clingfishes, and start preparation for new elections.
In its turn, the Alliance for European Integration now can demonstrate all it is capable of in economy and in politics, how it will pull the nation out of economic crisis, and where it will lead the country to. The MCP’s going into opposition is giving Moldova a chance for overcoming the political crisis.
Q: How long do you think the Alliance will be preserving its unity?
A: The differences existing in the AEI are known to everyone – thank to the sociability of all the 4 constituent parties’ leaders. They are unite with a desire to remove the MCP from power without delay. One of their drawbacks is that the Alliance was formed under a strong pressure from the outside. This circumstance lets its opponents speak that the AEI is not independent in its actions. And, finally, the coalition’s unity is being damaged by the personal ambitions of the 4 leaders and quite inimical relations between them.
Q: Do you think this Parliament will be able to elect a new President of Moldova?
A: President Voronin’s recent statement that he is ready to step down is giving perhaps the last opportunity to achieve a compromise and accord between the majority Alliance and the Communist Party. Since the July 29 elections, the Communists have many a time stated their readiness to go into opposition if only a more or less neutral figure is proposed for presidency. The election of Mihai Ghimpu as Speaker is a sign that the Alliance does not wish to agree to whatever compromise. If another AEI representative were elected Speaker, the situation could well develop differently.
At the moment, perspectives of a smooth election of president are quite illusory. Apparently, the Alliance hopes for a crisis to start in the Communist Party, and for a split of the MCP parliamentary faction. I am not ruling out that at a crucial moment, for the sake of avoiding new parliamentary elections, the Alliance will resort to the notorious “street factor” or other extra-parliamentary forms of struggle to place pressure on the MCP faction.
Q: Who do you think has the highest chances of becoming the head of state?
A: As is known, the Alliance is promoting Democratic Party Chairman Marian Lupu for the post. I don’t really believe the Communist faction will vote for him. And nobody is speaking about a neutral figure, so far. Therefore, next half a year, i.e. until a new parliamentary election, Moldova is most probably going to live under Mihai Ghimpu as president, or, more correctly, as acting president. But all this will come off if the nearest weeks do not bring about new surprises.
Q: And, still, how high is the probability for Moldova to have an early parliamentary election?
A: So far, the political situation here is developing precisely in the direction of upsetting the election of president in parliament and announcing an early parliamentary election. It is clear that an uncertain political situation and a new election campaign will influence Moldova’s economic condition negatively.
Q: In case of a new election, which camp do you think Moldovan voters will support?
A: The Moldovan Communist Party has lately been suffering a negative electoral support trend, which became apparent last April 5 and particularly on July 29. A new election, should it really take place in March-April 2010, will apparently bring even fewer ballots than on July 29.
Infotag: Thank you very much for your interview, Mr. Todua.
(The interview’s full text is available in the Infotag-Analitica weekly bulletin.)
