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STABLE DICTATORSHIP ENSURES A BETTER ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT THAN UNSTABLE DEMOCRACY – CISR DIRECTOR
*Infotag’s interview with Galina Selari, Director of the Center for Strategic Researches and Reforms.
Q: Dr. Selari, analysts are expecting a 2009 Budget deficit of some 5-6 billion lei. How realistic may this figure be?
A: Such information was provided only in our mass media, and one cannot guess from the articles which budget the article authors meant – the public budget or the state budget. These two make a big difference. According to the latest official data published by the Ministry of Finance in June 2009, the budget deficit equaled to 633 million lei then. During July, it could grow to 700 million lei, I admit. But did the authors really mean to say that in the remaining 5 months of the year the budget must soar 10-fold? Well, I really doubt such forecast had any ground.
Q: Moldova’s negotiations with the International Monetary Fund are to take place soon. How important are they for the republic?
A: Within the framework of country backing, the IMF is ready to render assistance, which, like any money coming from outside, is used for replenishing the National Bank reserve. This money is used in the national economy only indirectly. The availability of Memorandum with the IMF serves a green light for receiving a credit from the European Union, state credits from European Union member countries, which opens further credit possibilities. It is a signal for all potential creditors that situation in Moldova has stabilized, that the situation is under control, and that we are not a higher-risk zone.
Q: Former economy minister Igor Dodon inspired hope in many by stating that the Moldovan economy is recovering – slowly but steadily. Could you comment, please?
A: I can neither confirm nor refute this assertion. The experience of our previous crisis overcoming shows that Moldova is strongly dependent on the external world in terms of both exports and imports. The markets of our main trade partners in the East as well as in the West have received a signal that situation in Moldova is already being stabilized. If positive forecasts come true in October- November and if no force majeure emerges here, then one can expect that Moldova will start getting out of the crisis in about January-February 2010.
Q: What fate may await the Moldovan leu currency?
A: Its exchange rate is realistic at the moment, and the situation is on the whole calm. But it may change if the citizenry rushes to banks, like in 1998, and starts withdrawing deposits in panic. As a matter of fact, one can provoke the society so easily, just for no reason. Human masses are so explosive, you know. If this does not happen, the leu’s exchange rate may fall a little, but this will not be a chaotic or uncontrolled slump, it was in 1998.
Q: In case of a new early parliamentary election, how can it tell on the national economy?
A: In such case, quite tough times may be expecting us. Our international partners realize the hard situation here. They are conservative, and abide by their own rules. To avoid Moldova’s complete financial closure, they may decide to conclude with us an interim memorandum or agreement. This will be quite hard to do, and it will be very difficult to explain things to the electorate. There really exists a risk of holding a third parliamentary election during shorter than 12 months. We have reached a political deadlock that does not let us be optimistic about the future, at least at the present moment. Now we need to elect a strong president and let new government work normally, so that the government could feel strong enough to conduct any negotiations and reach any accords thank to a full spectrum of plenary powers it has.
Q: How do you imagine the process of economy rehabilitation?
A: The process will start gaining momentum as soon as we are through with the notorious disease called “whose fault is this?” The chief thing is that the traditional pursuit of the responsible should be as short as possible. For rehabilitation’s sake, we must get down to real business without wasting precious time. Now it is essential to further develop what has been achieved by now. We must show that we do exist, that we are suffering no cataclysms, that we keep on developing, and that promises given to domestic people of business, to the populace and foreign partners are being fulfilled.
Infotag: Thank you very much for your interview.
