Economics

ECONOMY MINISTRY UPDATES MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

23 november, 2017

The Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure has updated the forecasts of macroeconomic indexes on the basis of the evolution of world economy and economies of Moldova’s major trade partners, first of all the livening the Russian and Ukrainian economies, rehabilitation of EU economies.

The GDP targeted growth, coordinated with International Monetary Fund (IMF) experts, will account for 3.5% in 2017, but not 4.5%, as they were supposing in March. The Moldovan economy growth in 2018 has also been reduced by 0.5% – to 3%, while the 2019 and 2020 targeted growth did not change – 4%.

In nominal value the GDP will reach 148.7 billion lei in 2017 (+0.4 billion), 160.1 billion in 2018 (-1.8 billion), 174.5 billion in 2019 (-1.9 billion) and 190.2 billion lei in 2020 (-2.1 billion).

As for the inflation, it is expected at the level of 7% in 2017 (6.5% in the previous forecast), 3.5% in 2018 (5.5%), 5% in 2019 and 2020.

The Moldovan leu average exchange rate against the US dollar will account for 18.56 lei, but not 20 lei, as it was planned earlier. By the end of the year, the exchange rate will reach MDL17.7 : US$1. By the end 2018 – 17.9, 2019 – 18.3, 2020 – 18.8.

The Moldovan exports growth forecast was raised to 15% from 10% in 2017, while for 2018 – to 8% from 6.5%, while imports – to 19% from 8% and to 6% from 3.5%, respectively.

Industrial production will grow this year only 1%, while next year – 5%, while agricultural goods – 3.5% and 1% (in comparable prices).

An important factor of GDP growth is expected to be the growth of investments in long-term tangible assets: after 15% falling in 2016, it is expected that these will grow 3% in 2017 (7.5% in the previous forecast), 4% in 2018 (5%), 4.5% – in 2019 (4.5%), 6% in 2018 (7.5%).

Infotag’s dossier: The MoE forecast of the 2017 growth of Moldovan economy is equivalent to conclusions of the IMF and World Bank, which have also lowered it to 3.5%.

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