NBM MAKES THIRD CORRECTION OF ITS INFLATION FORECAST SINCE YEAR BEGINNING

Inflation in Moldova in 2019 will be 5%, and in 2020 – 6.7%. These are the new forecasts made by the National Bank of Moldova (NBM), which forecasted 5.1% and 6.5%, respectively in its previous May report.

According to the third inflation report published by the NBM since the beginning of the year, the annual inflation rate will grow until the end of this year and will reach a maximum of 8% in the fourth quarter; after that it will continuously decline to a minimum of 3.9% in the second quarter of 2021.

The annual growth rate of food prices will increase significantly by the end of this year, while fuel prices will be relatively stable, fluctuating slightly at relatively low levels.

The NBM notes, that in the second quarter of 2019 the inflation rate continued its upward trajectory, increasing from 2.8% in March to 4.4% in June. This development was supported by some pressure from food prices, depreciation of the national currency, and some pressure from aggregate demand.

Infotag’s dossier: In 2018, the inflation rate in Moldova amounted to 0.9%, which neither local nor foreign experts expected. For this year, the Ministry of Economy expects it to be within 7.5%, the IMF – 3.3%, the World Bank – 4.7%.