MoE REVISES MOLDOVA’S MACROECONOMIC FORECAST

The Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure published the new forecast of macroeconomic rates for the next several years, considerably changing the figures against the July forecast.

The economic growth forecast for 2019 was raised to 4.2% from 3.7%. Meanwhile, the expectations for the next three years remained unchanged – 3.8%. In nominal terms, the GDP will grow to 208.3 billion in 2019 (+1 billion lei) and 270.8 billion in 2022 (+1.3 billion lei) from 192.3 billion lei in 2018.

The average annual level of inflation in 2019 was preserved within 4.9%, while in 2020 – 5.7%. With all this, the level of inflation is expected within 7.5% at the end of 2019, while for the next three years – 5%.

As for the national currency, the average annual exchange rate of the Moldovan leu will account for MDL17.74 per US$1 against the previously forecasted 18 lei, in 2020 – 18.47 lei, in 2021 – 19.05 lei, while in 2022 – 19.63 lei.

The industrial growth in 2019 is expected at 3% (-1%), while in the next three years it will be slowly growing – 4.2%, 4.3% and 4.5%. The volumes of production in agriculture will grow to 3.6% in 2022 from 1% in 2019.

According to the new document, the investments in short-term tangible assets will grow 18% at once – to 33.1% in 2019 (though in July the growth was planned at 7.7%). Next years the figures are 5%, 3.7% and 4%, respectively.