CONTROVERSIES BETWEEN PSRM AND ACUM MAY DEVELOP INTO POLITICAL WAR – EXPERT

The verbal duels, taking place between the Party of Socialists (PSRM) and the political bloc ACUM in the run-up to the local election may grow into a political war, presumes Moldovan political scientist Igor Volnitchi, Director of the Poliexpert Center for Political Consulting.

Volnitchi said on the local television on Thursday night that the year 2019 “has not yet disclosed fully its political potential”, and next year the country may well come across political surprises.

“The current governing coalition was formed initially only on the basis of its constituent parties’ desire to overthrow the Plahotniuc regime. This coalition cannot exist long because it is unnatural. I guess it would be correct of the parties, with an account of their having diametrically different electorates, to draw up kind of a road map that would mean: we annihilate all the signs and traces of Vlad Plahotniuc in the Moldovan politics, and we go for the election”, said the political scientist.

In the current situation, Igor Volnitchi believes events in Moldova may develop according to the following 6 possible scenarios:

First: the ACUM bloc yields to President Dodon’s demands and the coalition revises distribution of the spheres of influence on the governmental level. This will mean that the coalition will be able to remain afloat for some more time – at least until the next spring;

Second: a break-up of the coalition and appointment of a government of national salvation [i.e. achieving of a consensus with the Democratic Party, too];

Third: a snap parliamentary election.

“The next scenarios will depend on Andrei Nastase, namely if he wins the mayoral election in Chisinau or not. He may lose, and may lay the blame for his defeat on the alliance with the Socialists, and may step back [go to the opposition]. He may well act in the same manner in case of his victory – leave the coalition and, already being in the opposition, may go for a presidential election. The latter scenario is linked with an external factor: foreign players will be pressing on one of the coalition parties”, said Igor Volnitchi.

Political scientist Roman Mihaies developed further the idea of an external factor: “This will mean a replacement of Socialists with Democrats in the governing coalition. This is precisely why the Western partners have not permitted to ruin the Moldovan Democratic Party”.

“I presume this is the reason of the current nervousness between the Party of Socialists and the ACUM. Plahotniuc has been removed, so scenario of a coalition with the DP has become possible. But I presume the present governing coalition may be preserved in its current shape, but at the cost of reformatting the Government.

However, political scientist Victor Ciobanu believes that “the ferroconcrete of our current governing coalition was created not in Moldova. Therefore, the coalition will exist as long as it will be necessary [for external partners]. Presently, there is no question of disbanding the coalition. And after the [October 20] election there will be no such question on the political agenda”.