Reports
RUSSIA MAY OFFER KOZAK PLAN-2, LOCAL EXPERTS PRESUME
Chisinau. After recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia, the Republic of Moldova should expect the appearance of a second Kozak Memorandum, some local experts presume.
One of them, Vlad Lupan, a former employee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, told a news conference in Infotag today that the Moldovan authorities are aware of such possible new document, “so the problem Moldova is facing now is how to overcome such situation”.
In his belief, “the offensive against Georgia pursued an objective to demonstrate Russia’s might. Russia is trying the soil, seeking to find out how far it can go, and how firm the international community’s solidarity will be. Russia wants to show to all it is prepared so well that it is not afraid of finding itself in isolation for a certain period of time. Therefore, what happened in Georgia is also a warning for Moldova to avoid making sharp movements”.
Lupan presumes that now, with the European community’s attention pivoted to Georgia, Moldova is likely to fall out of international attention, “and Russia will avail itself of this favorable opportunity and will undertake an attempt to bargain with Moldova on some issues pertaining to Transnistrian conflict settlement”.
The Memorandum “On the Fundamental Principles of the State Structure of a United State – the Republic of Moldova”, aka the Kozak Memorandum, prepared in 2003 by Dmitry Kozak, the then Russian President’s Plenipotentiary Representative at the Southern Federal District, envisaged the formation of a united federal state – the Republic of Moldova, in which Transnistria was offered to be given the status of a federation subject. At the very last moment, Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin refused to sign the already initialed document.
…VOICE PESSIMISM CONCERNING CHISINAU’S RESOLUTION TO SPEAK OUT LOUDLY…
Chisinau. Moldovan experts are sharing an opinion that the incumbent Moldova authorities will hardly speak out loudly and clearly their position with respect to the armed conflict in South Ossetia and to Russia’s recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Director of the Association for External Policy, political scientist Andrei Popov said at the news conference in Infotag today that Moldova’s decision to join the declaration, made by European Union’s French presidency concerning the South Ossetian conflict, was “commendable and elegant. But it is clear we will not hear a more distinct assessment. Indeed, such a stance is not irreproachable, but in this particular case it is understandable”.
Independent expert Vlad Lupan pointed out that even if the Moldovan authorities state their position one day, it will hardly be a pro-Georgia one. In his belief, on the eve of the Sochi meeting, Russia President Dmitry Medvedev warned his colleague Vladimir Voronin against condemning Russia’s recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Political analyst Oazu Nantoi presumes the Transnistria conflict will be remaining unsolved for a long time yet.
“It is clear that the conflict may be settled only if the sides involved approve Russia’s plan analogous to the Kozak Memorandum of 2003. But nothing of the kind will come off! The 5+2 negotiations are inefficient because this format is only a mechanism of reciprocal control over the sides involved”, said Nantoi.
In his firm belief, the Transnistria conflict can only be solved if the principle of three D’s, approved by the society, is put into life – decriminalization, demilitarization, and democratization of the Transnistrian region.
… AND SAY EU MUST GUARANTEE ITS SUPPORT IN CASE MOLDOVA’S INTEGRITY IS IN JEOPARDY
Chisinau. In its would-be new Agreement to be signed with Moldova, the European Union must envisage a provision that support shall be provided to Moldova in case its territorial integrity is encroached on, Institute of Public Policies Director Arcadie Barbarosie stated at the news conference in Infotag today.
He presumes Moldova should start negotiations on the new Agreement with the European Union the sooner the better, no matter the approaching 2009 parliamentary elections.
“Currently, the Chisinau-Brussels relationship is not regulated by whatever document. Therefore it is necessary to negotiate the new Agreement without delay, and to make sure that it will stipulate a clear perspective of Moldova’s accession to the European Union”, Barbarosie said.
In his belief, Moldova’s course for the European Union ought to remain unchanged, no matter the Transnistrian conflict settlement. This course is backed by over 70% population, so even if some problems arise, they must be overcome.
He believes also that “the conflict Russia has unleashed in Georgia was aimed at suspending the accession of Georgia, Ukraine and, possibly, Moldova to the European Union”.
During his flying visit to Chisinau last Wednesday, Romanian President Traian Basescu said the negotiations on the Agreement between the European Union and the Republic of Moldova would begin from January 1, 2009.
