MINISTRY OF ECONOMY SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED THE FORECAST OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF MOLDOVA

The Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure has released a new forecast of macroeconomic indicators for 2021-2023, significantly changing it compared to March, taking into account the pandemic crisis.

The document agreed with the IMF is expected to reduce Moldova's GDP by 4.5% this year against the previously planned growth of 3.8%. At the same time, then experts of the Ministry of Economy predict the growth of the national economy by 4.1% in 2021, by 4% in 2022 and by 4.2% in 2023.

The forecast for the average annual inflation rate in 2020 has been reduced from 5.1% to 2.8%. At the end of this year, it is expected to be within 0.5% (-2.5 percentage points), in 2021 - 6% (+1.5 percentage points), and for the next two years it will remain unchanged - by 5%.

The decline in industrial production in 2020 is expected at the level of 3% (-7 pp), and in the next three years growth is projected at 5.2%, 4% and 4.5%. In agriculture, the situation is expected to be much worse this year - a decline compared to 2019 by 11.9%. However, already in 2021, experts from the Ministry of Agriculture predict an increase in agricultural output by as much as 13.3%.

The situation is similar in foreign trade. If this year exports are expected to fall by 12.9% and imports by 10%, then in the future they will grow by 21.2% and 19.3%, respectively.

According to the new forecast, this year, investments in long-term assets will amount to 95.2% of last year's level but in 2021 they will grow by 6.5%, in 2022 - by 4.4% and in 2022 - by 4.9%.